Hello Friend from today we will be posting our View on Index - Nifty50, and Bank Nifty
So guys, in recent times i.e in the last 11 days of the trading session. If one monitored the market, they will find that the Index has outperformed the market out of 11 trading sessions almost 9 times Nifty ended in the green.
Nifty
One can see from the charts that the Nifty50 almost from 11700 went up to 12000 almost in one direction. i.e Uptrend
Then on Thursday, it fell significantly. Of course one can not deny that the fall was because of the retailers who were maintaining a bullish view. All of them sold PUTS and unfortunately when the market fell all of their positions are to be exited before 3:15 (because of expiry) because of it they put more pressure on the downside and left no chance of recovery.
If you look at the FII and DII chart one could understand that the Selling from FII and DII was not on the high side when we compare to the previous trading days.
| FII/FPI trading activity on NSE,BSE and MSEI in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| FII/FPI | 16-Oct-2020 | 4605.47 | 5085.06 | -479.59 |
| DII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MSEI in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| DII | 16-Oct-2020 | 2545.89 | 2975.7 | -429.81 |
That's the reason when all the long positions exited from the market and there are no new shot positions it was expected to move up. that's why our market went up yesterday.
Now coming to Monday's trade one can see yesterday the market though went up but Nifty in particular facing strong resistance at 11800
This means that the market is considered to be strong on the up move only after crossing 11800.
Bank Nifty
Now Bank Nifty Which is really beaten very badly due to Monetary Policy and other reason Even on Expiry the Bank Nifty has fallen nearly 1000 Points. The bottom line remains the same the long position was built-up, however when the entire world's market is down our which made our market to fall and the retailers who build the position here too have to exit because of expiry which contributed to the fall.
In the Bank Nifty, I will say that 23500 is a race line which means the Bank nifty can remain positive or be on the long side above 23500.
FII and DII
One could see with Yesterday's FII and DII data, Option buying took place since it is the first day it's hard to say which direction the movement would happen.Index and Stock Buying happened. The indication is good But let's see in detail a couple of other data points
Cash Purchase
FII DII
| 16-Oct-2020 | 4,605.47 | 5,085.06 | -479.59 | 2,545.89 | 2,975.70 | -429.8 |
The cash purchase talk about of selling not by much. But selling is seen
FII INDEX
FII Index Futures FII Index Options
| 16-Oct-2020 | 4,061.40 | 4,103.65 | -42.25 | 188,433.04 | 187,760.43 | 672.61 |
We can selling happened in FII Index Futures and Buying in FII Index which means Hedging. One can think that FII selling Index Futures and doing Hedge by buying options. So clearly an indication for me is that one can some Resistance or selling at higher levels.
To conclude this post with my opinion is as follows:
Nifty: Weak below 11800
Bank Nifty: Strong as long as it is above 23500
So wait and see whether Nifty will bring the Bank Nifty down or it's Bank Nifty that's going pull the Nifty. Tomorrow's session is going to be very interesting.
Let's see who wins this tug of war.
